Berlusconi Makes a Comeback

This week was marked by two important political meetings. One took place yesterday evening at Palazzo Chigi, the official residence of Prime Minister Mario Monti, who met with Angelino Alfano, Pier Luigi Bersani and Pier Ferdinando Casini, the leaders of People of Liberty (PDL), the Democratic Party (PD) and the Union of Christian and Centre Democrats (UDC), respectively. The meeting was long and not without tensions. Tomorrow Monti is scheduled to meet former premier Silvio Berlusconi. Since prime ministers do not usually meet their predecessors, Berlusconi’s will probably not be a courtesy visit. The coincidence was rather surprising, given the time and the political situation. The question now is, who sets the PDL’s political and parliamentary agenda? Was it Alfano during his meeting with the leaders of the other parties, or will it be Berlusconi tomorrow?

The question is relevant because the meeting will affect Bersani and Casini too, thus having an impact on the government’s majority as a whole. Given Berlusconi’s personality and his political history, however, he will probably not be satisfied with just a photo opportunity with Monti. Instead, he will want to have a say in controversial issues about which he is particularly passionate, such as the promotion of growth, taxes, the new anti-corruption law that Justice Minister Paola Severino has just put together and TV frequencies, which were supposed to be given away but will be sold in an auction instead.

Berlusconi’s interference is not likely to be blatant and will probably not be broadcast through the media. Berlusconi has a strategy, and he does not intend to change it: he plans to back Monti until the end of the legislature, thus using the technocratic government as a tool to strengthen the moderate coalition. The issue of TV frequencies is particularly painful because it’s unexpected. In Berlusconi’s mind it cannot go unanswered.

Berlusconi’s role in politics is still so relevant that it eclipses yesterday’s meeting, which is a problem for those who took part in it. Yesterday, they all needed to show some results to their voters, especially given that local elections are around the corner.

Bersani in particular knows that he must be responsive to people who have suffered from the crisis and to local communities. Alfano, on the other hand, wants his party to play a role in the labor reform and hopes to decrease taxes. Casini aims to keep his role of mediator in the majority.

All three were surprised by the issue of TV frequencies: Bersani had no interest in talking about it, while Alfano had to give voice to Berlusconi and to those in his party who say that Economic Development Minister Corrado Passera did not abide by previous agreements.

Yesterday evening was, therefore, not calm. The point, however, is that Berlusconi is going to see Monti. The issue now is to assess how the former premier will handle the meeting, which will happen only a few hours from the other one.