A Clear Message to the Political Forces

The results of the administrative elections, although clamorous from certain perspectives, beg the crucial question. That data: fragmentation of the political lists; the advancement of the “Grillini” (followers of gay rights activist Franco Grillini); the defeat of the center-right People of Liberty; the Northern League being reduced to Tosi, Verona’s anti-Bossi mayor; the Democratic Party (barely) holding on; the modest performance by the Third Pole, as the Italy of the Centre party is often called; the widespread abstention; the Orlando phenomenon in Palermo. Collectively, all these data constitute a message aimed at whom? The protagonists and co-protagonists of a sickly political system that is unable to reform itself? Or are they a hostile message aimed at the Monti administration and its policies of rigor? A way of emphasizing the existence of an unbearable “social suffering,” as representatives of the leftist Democratic Party and the center-right People of Liberty were saying last night, with an uncharacteristically common tone?

Solving this puzzle is fundamental to understand the destiny that lies before us—whether it will be more similar to France’s, in a matter of speaking, or whether we are, unfortunately, more inclined to emulate Greece.

In Paris, the French were able to activate the new alternating mechanism in an orderly fashion, as guaranteed by the excellent two-step electoral law. In Athens, the disaster started taking shape when the “technical” government first settled into office and then hurried to early elections on the basis of a faulty calculation.

Now, the political Italy is also at a crossroads. It’s clear that the economic crisis and the social unease doomed the elections. But we are talking about partial administrative elections that involved less than 10 million Italians. That’s a lot, but nothing compared to a national vote on renovating Parliament. And in the end, the local issues—with their occasionally contradictory logic—seem to have motivated the voters as much as more general considerations. In both cases, the vote is like a verdict that measures the quality of the political “offer.” And it does not take much imagination to see the glaring message: they returned a guilty verdict for all those who lost credibility and come with the baggage of a poor administration. This is the case for the People of Liberty: they are finally paying for all the disillusions caused by the last Berlusconi term and for the terrible performance by a couple of mayors. But Bersani, the Italian Hollande, should not rush to pat his own back. Grated, the outcome for the Democratic Party was not as bad as that of the People of Liberty, but there is still a long way to go before they can present a serious proposal for the future government of the country.

It is known that Bersani, secretary of the Democratic Party, intends to bring together left-wing Nichi Vendola and Italy of Center’s Pier Ferdinando Casini much like Hollande united the votes of extreme leftist Mélenchon and the moderate Bayrou. But, for a thousand reasons, Rome is not Paris, and our electoral system is not the French one. Besides, it is not at all certain that Bersani can manage to keep Vendola and at the same time exclude the Italy of Values party’s Di Pietro. This poses new problems, which are accentuated by the spreading of the Five Star Movement and its predictable influence on the Italy of Values party and the radical left.

In other words, the Italian political system could be at the beginning of an eruption. And some would be tempted to dump it all on the Monti administration in order to regain the electoral consensus. This would be the final error, capable of thrusting Italy toward a form of nongovernability resembling the Greek situation. In any case, it is well known that the left is dreaming of early elections. But these would only come if the right were foolish enough to single-handedly bring about the fall of the Monti administration. It would be that “populist” outlet that Alfano and Berlusconi himself have been decidedly avoiding. But the internal and external pressures are mounting.

Perhaps it is because an electoral campaign is easier and less honest than a serious labor of self-reform that would involve the entire political system. Alfano, Bersani and Casini are all behind schedule on their renewal process. But dumping their shortcomings on the Monti administration would mean accentuating the political irresponsibility. This would fuel, rather than contain, the new successes of the Grillini—the angry bark of the political parties.